SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING ▮

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

AI Risk & AGI Progress Index

A cumulative counter of AI news pressure · as of Nov 1, 2026 09:26 UTC

Chance of AI control loss

37.3%

today no change · since Oct 25 +0.46 pp

Estimated control loss

March 30, 2035

since Oct 25 14 days sooner

AGI progress

84.7%

today no change · since Oct 25 +0.42 pp

Estimated AGI arrival

June 14, 2029

since Oct 25 11 days sooner

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Risk Trend Over Time

The chance of AI control loss over time; the daily values are in the news archive.

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[-0.02% RISK]
[+0.03% RISK]
[-0.09% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Amazon Plans ~$220B 2026 Capex, Mostly for AWS AI Infrastructure, Targeting $1T Cloud Business

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said AWS could become a trillion-dollar revenue business within five to ten years. To get there, Amazon expects roughly $220 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, mostly for AWS AI infrastructure, a...

Risk: [+0.03 pp] [1 day sooner]
AGI: [+0.02 pp] [1 day sooner]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Mistral Open-Sources Weights of Trillion-Parameter Mistral Large 4, Pitching It for Cyber Defense

Mistral has released the weights for its trillion-parameter Mistral Large 4 ("Le Chonk") on Hugging Face and via API, letting businesses and governments deploy it on their own infrastructure. The company claims performan...

Risk: [+0.04 pp] [1 day sooner]
AGI: [+0.02 pp] [1 day sooner]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

November 2026
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October 2026
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September 2026
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August 2026
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June 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = the day's risk move

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is a cumulative counter of news pressure, produced by an automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: a large language model (currently Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5; the model has changed several times since 2025) scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: each score becomes a small move through fixed divisors, and the moves add up with nothing decaying — so the numbers mostly climb, because most news is scored in the alarming direction.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.